Sunday, August 30, 2009
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Friday, August 7, 2009
Understand this chart and you understand value
Yet each man kills the thing he loves,By each let this be heard, Some do it with a bitter look, Some with a flattering word, The coward does it with a kiss, The brave man with a sword!
Addendum: FOFOA, I am honored you found the chart helpful. Tuesday, August 4, 2009
It cannot be undone. It cannot be untangled.
The Gordian Knot of Debt will be cut.
And the collapse will be swift.
Sunday, July 12, 2009
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Dig Your Own Financial Grave
How much longer until you lie down to rest in your own financial grave?
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
The End
Implosion is inevitable.
Little genuine money exists in the global economy, only debt parading as money. The amount of planetary debt is unserviceable in its present form.
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
Fiat tulip bulbs anyone? Ask the groundskeepers of Keukenhof how well those would grow.
Tough Times for the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street
Interest rates for the Bank of England are at an all-time, 315-year low.
Note the stability in interest rates before The Family overtook The City.
Note the stability in interest rates before The Family overtook The City.
According to conservative inflation-adjusted data...
*Does not include the current and all future stimulus/spending programs.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Cold Iron
Gold is for the mistress -- silver for the maid --
Copper for the craftsman cunning at his trade."
"Good!" said the Baron, sitting in his hall,
"But Iron -- Cold Iron -- is master of them all."
-Kipling
Copper for the craftsman cunning at his trade."
"Good!" said the Baron, sitting in his hall,
"But Iron -- Cold Iron -- is master of them all."
-Kipling
Monday, February 16, 2009
The Definition of Insanity Revisited
When central banks can no longer control the price of money, they sometimes resort to quantitative easing, a policy whereby they may attempt to control the quantity of money.
Quant easing was attempted during the French Revolution.
Quant easing was attempted during the American Civil War.
Quant easing was attempted during the Russian Revolution.
In each instance it failed and led those respective economies into hyper-inflationary depressions, further exacerbating their turmoil.
Quant easing was attempted during the French Revolution.
Quant easing was attempted during the American Civil War.
Quant easing was attempted during the Russian Revolution.
In each instance it failed and led those respective economies into hyper-inflationary depressions, further exacerbating their turmoil.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Sunday, February 8, 2009
The Medicis made the leap
And so have many other families.
These are the times in which leaps of wealth are made.
How many realize the United States dollar has, at best, but a few years remaining?
These are the times in which leaps of wealth are made.
How many realize the United States dollar has, at best, but a few years remaining?
Anonymous wrote:
"Why 355%?"
I'll let Niall Ferguson field this one.
This is all about debt right now. This is the end of the age of leverage. We managed to juice the economy, particularly in North America, with debt---household debt, debt on bank balance sheets, as well, of course, with government debt---and we've reached the point of no return. There's a sort of ceiling, which turns out to be 355% of gross domestic product, in the case of the United States. Once your total debt level gets that high there has to be some kind of de-leveraging. The big question is how do we unwind these enormously burdensome debts? In the past, big debt crises were mainly crises of public debt, and they usually ended one of two ways: either the government defaulted on the debt, or it was inflated away, because the currency simply depreciated. I don't think it's going to be so easy this time, because this isn't just a crisis of public debt. It's a crisis of private debt, and it's quite hard for there to be a general default on, let's say, half the mortgages in the United States...That is where we're heading at the moment.....
355% is an approximation.
It's impossible to tell precisely when the event horizon is reached. We may have already crossed it.
I'll let Niall Ferguson field this one.
This is all about debt right now. This is the end of the age of leverage. We managed to juice the economy, particularly in North America, with debt---household debt, debt on bank balance sheets, as well, of course, with government debt---and we've reached the point of no return. There's a sort of ceiling, which turns out to be 355% of gross domestic product, in the case of the United States. Once your total debt level gets that high there has to be some kind of de-leveraging. The big question is how do we unwind these enormously burdensome debts? In the past, big debt crises were mainly crises of public debt, and they usually ended one of two ways: either the government defaulted on the debt, or it was inflated away, because the currency simply depreciated. I don't think it's going to be so easy this time, because this isn't just a crisis of public debt. It's a crisis of private debt, and it's quite hard for there to be a general default on, let's say, half the mortgages in the United States...That is where we're heading at the moment.....
355% is an approximation.
It's impossible to tell precisely when the event horizon is reached. We may have already crossed it.
Aren't trained seals supposed to be entertaining?
Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard by debt apologists Lawrence Summers and Robert Barsky is one of the most tortuous justifications for paper promises ever written. It errs in fundamental ways, primary of which is failing to recognize gold's role as a monetary numéraire. Summers, now in the limelight, has an opportunity to atone for his willful and shameful ignorance. He won't, for his current position is a reward for servicing his masters.
Friday, February 6, 2009
Arnold Rothstein
"Who is he anyhow--an actor?"
"No."
"A dentist?"
"Meyer Wolfshiem? No, he's a gambler." Gatsby hesitated, then added
coolly: "He's the man who fixed the World's Series back in 1919."
"Fixed the World's Series?" I repeated.
The idea staggered me. I remembered of course that the World's Series
had been fixed in 1919 but if I had thought of it at all I would have
thought of it as a thing that merely HAPPENED, the end of some
inevitable chain. It never occurred to me that one man could start to
play with the faith of fifty million people--with the single-mindedness
of a burglar blowing a safe.
"How did he happen to do that?" I asked after a minute.
"He just saw the opportunity."
"Why isn't he in jail?"
"They can't get him, old sport. He's a smart man."
-The Great Gatsby, 1925
F. Scott Fitzgerald
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Ouroboric Financing
It's getting more difficult for the United States to export its debt.China and other countries are now buying fewer treasuries, of shorter maturities, and at lower rates.
So the Fed is now buying what China and others no longer want: US debt.
Your debt.
The snake is now eating its tail.
The snake is now eating its tail.
The Miser and the Monkey
A man amass’d. The thing, we know,
Doth often to a frenzy grow.
No thought had he but of his minted gold–
Stuff void of worth when unemploy’d, I hold.
Now, that this treasure might the safer be,
Our miser’s dwelling had the sea
As guard on every side from every thief.
With pleasure, very small in my belief,
But very great in his, he there
Upon his hoard bestow’d his care.
No respite came of everlasting
Recounting, calculating, casting;
For some mistake would always come
To mar and spoil the total sum.
A monkey there, of goodly size,–
And than his lord, I think, more wise,–
Some doubloons from the window threw,
And render’d thus the count untrue.
The padlock’d room permitted
Its owner, when he quitted,
To leave his money on the table.
One day, bethought this monkey wise
To make the whole a sacrifice
To Neptune on his throne unstable.
I could not well award the prize
Between the monkey’s and the miser’s pleasure
Derived from that devoted treasure.
With some, Don Bertrand, would the honour gain,
For reasons it were tedious to explain.
One day, then, left alone,
That animal, to mischief prone,
Coin after coin detach’d,
A gold jacobus snatch’d,
Or Portuguese doubloon,
Or silver ducatoon,
Or noble, of the English rose,
And flung with all his might
Those discs, which oft excite
The strongest wishes mortal ever knows.
Had he not heard, at last,
The turning of his master’s key,
The money all had pass’d
The same short road to sea;
And not a single coin but had been pitch’d
Into the gulf by many a wreck enrich’d.
Now, God preserve full many a financier
Whose use of wealth may find its likeness here!
The Fables of La Fontaine
by Jean de La Fontaine, 1875
Translation by Elizur Wrigh
So which one are you, the monkey or the miser?
Doth often to a frenzy grow.
No thought had he but of his minted gold–
Stuff void of worth when unemploy’d, I hold.
Now, that this treasure might the safer be,
Our miser’s dwelling had the sea
As guard on every side from every thief.
With pleasure, very small in my belief,
But very great in his, he there
Upon his hoard bestow’d his care.
No respite came of everlasting
Recounting, calculating, casting;
For some mistake would always come
To mar and spoil the total sum.
A monkey there, of goodly size,–
And than his lord, I think, more wise,–
Some doubloons from the window threw,
And render’d thus the count untrue.
The padlock’d room permitted
Its owner, when he quitted,
To leave his money on the table.
One day, bethought this monkey wise
To make the whole a sacrifice
To Neptune on his throne unstable.
I could not well award the prize
Between the monkey’s and the miser’s pleasure
Derived from that devoted treasure.
With some, Don Bertrand, would the honour gain,
For reasons it were tedious to explain.
One day, then, left alone,
That animal, to mischief prone,
Coin after coin detach’d,
A gold jacobus snatch’d,
Or Portuguese doubloon,
Or silver ducatoon,
Or noble, of the English rose,
And flung with all his might
Those discs, which oft excite
The strongest wishes mortal ever knows.
Had he not heard, at last,
The turning of his master’s key,
The money all had pass’d
The same short road to sea;
And not a single coin but had been pitch’d
Into the gulf by many a wreck enrich’d.
Now, God preserve full many a financier
Whose use of wealth may find its likeness here!
The Fables of La Fontaine
by Jean de La Fontaine, 1875
Translation by Elizur Wrigh
So which one are you, the monkey or the miser?
Tranching the Future
Proposed legislation to regulate the derivates markets is not actually about regulation. It's about appeasement and control.
Can derivatives exist with transparency and accountability? No.
Iniquity and derivatives are mutually contingent.
There's nothing transparent about a Black Hole of Debt.
It will implode on its own. No amount of regulation can change that fact.
Can derivatives exist with transparency and accountability? No.
Iniquity and derivatives are mutually contingent.
There's nothing transparent about a Black Hole of Debt.
It will implode on its own. No amount of regulation can change that fact.
It's only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.
Pop Quiz. The International Bank of Derivatives and Paper Promises just went broke. You're now left with the counter-party risk. What happens when notional value must be reconciled with real value? Can there be genuine price exploration? Can you rely upon mark-to-market accounting?
And what if, per the BIS, the notional value is approximately $1.144 quadrillion dollars in outstanding derivatives, a total greater than the entire wealth of the planet?
Default or devalue.
The latter is a more respectable way of accomplishing the former. Both options are merely two sides of the same clipped and debased coin.
98% of derivatives are owned by the largest seven banks. Assuming these banks are financially sound and will be forever, then we have nothing to worry about.
I'm dreaming dreams...
I'm scheming schemes.....
Chorus
I'm forever blowing bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air.
They fly so high,
Nearly reach the sky,
Then like my dreams,
They fade and die.
Fortune's always hiding,
I've looked everywhere,
I'm forever blowing bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air.
And what if, per the BIS, the notional value is approximately $1.144 quadrillion dollars in outstanding derivatives, a total greater than the entire wealth of the planet?
Default or devalue.
The latter is a more respectable way of accomplishing the former. Both options are merely two sides of the same clipped and debased coin.
98% of derivatives are owned by the largest seven banks. Assuming these banks are financially sound and will be forever, then we have nothing to worry about.
I'm dreaming dreams...
I'm scheming schemes.....
Chorus
I'm forever blowing bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air.
They fly so high,
Nearly reach the sky,
Then like my dreams,
They fade and die.
Fortune's always hiding,
I've looked everywhere,
I'm forever blowing bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air.
Putting the Fun Back in Money Fund
Do you believe JPMorgan and others actually apportion their balance sheets to allow for losses in money-market funds?
They've already found their mark.
And it's you.
How many thieves can steal from you at one time? Thirty?
Of course it's for a good cause. Everything is for a good cause. For the greater good. Your own good. It's all good.
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Total Credit Market Debt as a % of GDP
You're approaching the event horizon of the Black Hole of Debt.
What's the magic number?
Deleveraging is inevitable.
Trade wars will unleash the dogs of war.
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